http://arstechnica.com/articles/paedia/gpu-sweeney-interview.ars

For my money, I bet many companies will still use directX and openGL so they don't re-invent the wheel.  However I've always thought that fixed pipeline and even programmable shaders where much more limited then the good'old cpu days when you could render anything you wanted (al'but at a very slow rate and low resolution).

-Joel